AI JOB RISK SCANNER
O*NET-SOC 53-3051.00 / model V11 rated-task engine

Will AI replace
Bus Drivers, School?

Drive a school bus to transport students. Ensure adherence to safety rules. May assist students in boarding or exiting.

Estimated AI task exposure
24%

Low-Moderate exposure

V11 weights occupation tasks using O*NET Importance, Relevance and Frequency ratings instead of treating every task equally.

17 tasks have usable Task Rating records; weighted-task coverage is 100%.

Digital/info work

32/100

Physical moat

46/100

Human moat

22/100

Rating coverage

100%

17 task statements / 17 rated

Highest-weighted occupation tasks

Comply with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner.
Importance 100/100Relevance 100/100Frequency 82/100Weight 0.95
Follow safety rules as students board and exit buses or cross streets near bus stops.
Importance 98/100Relevance 100/100Frequency 77/100Weight 0.94
Check the condition of a vehicle's tires, brakes, windshield wipers, lights, oil, fuel, water, and safety equipment to ensure that everything is in working order.
Importance 98/100Relevance 100/100Frequency 71/100Weight 0.92
Drive gasoline, diesel, or electrically powered multi-passenger vehicles to transport students between neighborhoods, schools, and school activities.
Importance 93/100Relevance 100/100Frequency 75/100Weight 0.91
Pick up and drop off students at regularly scheduled neighborhood locations, following strict time schedules.
Importance 94/100Relevance 96/100Frequency 77/100Weight 0.91
Maintain order among students during trips to ensure safety.
Importance 90/100Relevance 100/100Frequency 73/100Weight 0.90
Regulate heating, lighting, and ventilation systems for student comfort.
Importance 78/100Relevance 100/100Frequency 75/100Weight 0.86
Prepare and submit reports that may include the number of students or trips, hours worked, mileage, or fuel consumption.
Importance 86/100Relevance 100/100Frequency 64/100Weight 0.86
Report any bus malfunctions or needed repairs.
Importance 97/100Relevance 100/100Frequency 45/100Weight 0.85
Keep bus interiors clean for students.
Importance 81/100Relevance 100/100Frequency 67/100Weight 0.85

Task weighting

Each rated task receives a composite weight: 38% relevance, 37% importance and 25% frequency. Core tasks receive a small additional multiplier. Low-precision rows flagged by O*NET for suppression are excluded.

Occupation scoring

When rating coverage is strong, rated tasks contribute 60% of the digital, physical and human task signals and Work Activities contribute 40%. Lower-coverage occupations automatically rely more on Work Activities.

U.S. labor market

BLS Wage & Employment Outlook

Median annual wage

$47,920

BLS OEWS May 2025

National employment

402,930

BLS OEWS May 2025

Projected growth

+0.7%

BLS Employment Projections 2025–2035

Average annual openings

56

BLS Employment Projections 2025–2035

BLS labor-market figures are separate from the site's AI-exposure model. Missing values mean a compatible detailed BLS occupation estimate was not published or could not be mapped.

Career pivot radar

Safer Career Alternatives

These options are selected from the same 923-occupation model. They favor a similar task/work profile with meaningfully lower estimated AI exposure. They are suggestions for exploration, not guarantees of job fit.

SAFER ALTERNATIVE

Electric Motor, Power Tool, and Related Repairers

5%

19 points lower exposure • 88% profile similarity

Median wage: $56,210 Growth 2025–2035: +4.4% Annual openings: 1

more physical-world work, lower AI leverage
SAFER ALTERNATIVE

Helpers--Extraction Workers

5%

19 points lower exposure • 87% profile similarity

Median wage: $47,730 Growth 2025–2035: +1.7% Annual openings: 1

more physical-world work
SAFER ALTERNATIVE

Millwrights

5%

19 points lower exposure • 89% profile similarity

Median wage: $65,700 Growth 2025–2035: +0.9% Annual openings: 3

more physical-world work, lower AI leverage
SAFER ALTERNATIVE

Cement Masons and Concrete Finishers

6%

18 points lower exposure • 90% profile similarity

Median wage: $57,020 Growth 2025–2035: +1.6% Annual openings: 14

more physical-world work, lower AI leverage
SAFER ALTERNATIVE

Outdoor Power Equipment and Other Small Engine Mechanics

5%

19 points lower exposure • 87% profile similarity

Median wage: $47,880 Growth 2025–2035: +2.3% Annual openings: 4

more physical-world work, lower AI leverage
SAFER ALTERNATIVE

Bicycle Repairers

5%

19 points lower exposure • 85% profile similarity

Median wage: $42,780 Growth 2025–2035: -5.7% Annual openings: 1

stronger human/judgment moat, more physical-world work

Personalized career defense protocol

AI-Proofing Plan

AUTOMATE

    AUGMENT

    • administrative support tasks
    • planning and documentation

    PROTECT

      LEARN

      • basic AI literacy

      AI-PROOFING RESOURCES

      What this score does not mean

      The percentage is a comparative task-exposure index. It is not the probability that this occupation disappears, that a worker is laid off, or that AI can perform the entire job.

      New in V11

      Find a Safer Career Path

      High exposure does not mean starting over. V11 compares your occupation with the other 922 O*NET occupations and surfaces lower-exposure options with similar work profiles.

      EXPLORE CAREER ALTERNATIVES
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