AI JOB RISK SCANNER
O*NET-SOC 53-4031.00 / model V11 rated-task engine

Will AI replace
Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters?

Coordinate activities of switch-engine crew within railroad yard, industrial plant, or similar location. Conductors coordinate activities of train crew on passenger or freight trains. Yardmasters review train schedules and switching orders and coordinate activities of workers engaged in railroad traffic operations, such as the makeup or breakup of trains and yard switching.

Estimated AI task exposure
60%

High exposure

V11 weights occupation tasks using O*NET Importance, Relevance and Frequency ratings instead of treating every task equally.

20 tasks have usable Task Rating records; weighted-task coverage is 100%.

Digital/info work

61/100

Physical moat

27/100

Human moat

25/100

Rating coverage

100%

20 task statements / 20 rated

Highest-weighted occupation tasks

Direct engineers to move cars to fit planned train configurations, combining or separating cars to make up or break up trains.
Importance 87/100Relevance 100/100Frequency 82/100Weight 0.91
Direct and instruct workers engaged in yard activities, such as switching tracks, coupling and uncoupling cars, and routing inbound and outbound traffic.
Importance 88/100Relevance 94/100Frequency 80/100Weight 0.89
Review schedules, switching orders, way bills, and shipping records to obtain cargo loading and unloading information and to plan work.
Importance 83/100Relevance 98/100Frequency 82/100Weight 0.88
Receive instructions from dispatchers regarding trains' routes, timetables, and cargoes.
Importance 90/100Relevance 91/100Frequency 80/100Weight 0.88
Signal engineers to begin train runs, stop trains, or change speed, using telecommunications equipment or hand signals.
Importance 88/100Relevance 89/100Frequency 79/100Weight 0.86
Observe yard traffic to determine tracks available to accommodate inbound and outbound traffic.
Importance 94/100Relevance 73/100Frequency 82/100Weight 0.83
Confirm routes and destination information for freight cars.
Importance 86/100Relevance 74/100Frequency 78/100Weight 0.80
Arrange for the removal of defective cars from trains at stations or stops.
Importance 84/100Relevance 86/100Frequency 58/100Weight 0.78
Keep records of the contents and destination of each train car, and make sure that cars are added or removed at proper points on routes.
Importance 76/100Relevance 84/100Frequency 73/100Weight 0.78
Receive information regarding train or rail problems from dispatchers or from electronic monitoring devices.
Importance 81/100Relevance 83/100Frequency 64/100Weight 0.77

Task weighting

Each rated task receives a composite weight: 38% relevance, 37% importance and 25% frequency. Core tasks receive a small additional multiplier. Low-precision rows flagged by O*NET for suppression are excluded.

Occupation scoring

When rating coverage is strong, rated tasks contribute 60% of the digital, physical and human task signals and Work Activities contribute 40%. Lower-coverage occupations automatically rely more on Work Activities.

U.S. labor market

BLS Wage & Employment Outlook

Median annual wage

$78,000

BLS OEWS May 2025

National employment

46,440

BLS OEWS May 2025

Projected growth

+0.9%

BLS Employment Projections 2025–2035

Average annual openings

3

BLS Employment Projections 2025–2035

BLS labor-market figures are separate from the site's AI-exposure model. Missing values mean a compatible detailed BLS occupation estimate was not published or could not be mapped.

Career pivot radar

Safer Career Alternatives

These options are selected from the same 923-occupation model. They favor a similar task/work profile with meaningfully lower estimated AI exposure. They are suggestions for exploration, not guarantees of job fit.

SAFER ALTERNATIVE

Millwrights

5%

55 points lower exposure • 71% profile similarity

Median wage: $65,700 Growth 2025–2035: +0.9% Annual openings: 3

more physical-world work, less digital task exposure
SAFER ALTERNATIVE

Electric Motor, Power Tool, and Related Repairers

5%

55 points lower exposure • 69% profile similarity

Median wage: $56,210 Growth 2025–2035: +4.4% Annual openings: 1

more physical-world work, less digital task exposure
SAFER ALTERNATIVE

Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers

9%

51 points lower exposure • 71% profile similarity

Median wage: $61,010 Growth 2025–2035: +10.9% Annual openings: 41

more physical-world work, less digital task exposure
SAFER ALTERNATIVE

Helpers--Extraction Workers

5%

55 points lower exposure • 68% profile similarity

Median wage: $47,730 Growth 2025–2035: +1.7% Annual openings: 1

more physical-world work, less digital task exposure
SAFER ALTERNATIVE

Bicycle Repairers

5%

55 points lower exposure • 67% profile similarity

Median wage: $42,780 Growth 2025–2035: -5.7% Annual openings: 1

more physical-world work, less digital task exposure
SAFER ALTERNATIVE

Hydroelectric Production Managers

10%

50 points lower exposure • 71% profile similarity

Median wage: $126,060 Growth 2025–2035: +2.6% Annual openings: 17

stronger human/judgment moat, more physical-world work

Personalized career defense protocol

AI-Proofing Plan

AUTOMATE

  • routine information gathering
  • first-pass document drafting
  • standard reporting and summarization
  • repeatable administrative workflows

AUGMENT

  • research and analysis
  • quality checking AI-generated work
  • decision preparation
  • scenario generation

PROTECT

  • domain expertise
  • exception handling
  • accountability for outcomes

LEARN

  • AI-assisted research
  • workflow automation
  • data literacy
  • prompt and workflow design
  • AI output verification

AI-PROOFING RESOURCES

What this score does not mean

The percentage is a comparative task-exposure index. It is not the probability that this occupation disappears, that a worker is laid off, or that AI can perform the entire job.

New in V11

Find a Safer Career Path

High exposure does not mean starting over. V11 compares your occupation with the other 922 O*NET occupations and surfaces lower-exposure options with similar work profiles.

EXPLORE CAREER ALTERNATIVES
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